报告题目:平滑转移回归建模方法及应用研究进展
报告人:36365线路检测中心 王正新 博士
报告时间:2016年12月8日下午15点10分
报告地点:36365线路检测中心6号楼210室
组织发起:36365线路检测中心前沿文献与经典著作读书会
主办单位:36365线路检测中心
协办单位:科研处
内容摘要:
作为非线性体制转换模型之一,平滑转移回归模型能够较为细致地刻画变量在不同状态间的非线性转换,有效地从现实数据中挖掘线性模型无法揭示的经济学含义。近年来,该类模型被广泛应用于经济、金融领域,在理论方法研究方面也是非线性时间序列分析的前沿内容。此外,随着经济领域面板数据可得性的增强和面板数据建模技术的发展,非线性面板模型也逐渐成为学界研究的热点。本次沙龙将系统地介绍时间序列平滑转移回归模型和面板平滑转移回归模型的理论及应用研究进展,并结合主讲人近期的相关研究成果展开讨论。
参考文献:
1.Terasvirta, T. (1994). Specification, Estimation, and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(425): 208-218.
2.Van Dijk, D., and Franses, P. H. (1999), "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, 3: 311-340.
3.Van Dijk, D., Tersvirta, T. and Franses, P.H. (2002) Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models—A Survey of Recent. Developments. Econometric Reviews, 21: 1-47.
4.Lundbergh, S., Terasvirta, T., (2003). Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21(1) : 104-121.
5.Fok, D., Van Dijk, D., Franses, P.H. (2005). A multi-level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(6):811-827 .
6.Fouquau, J., Hurlin, C. and Rabaud, I. (2008). The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression. Approach. Economic Modelling, 25, 284-299.
7.McAleer, M., Medeiros, M.C. (2008). A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries. Journal of Econometrics, 147: 104–119.
8.Bekiros, S.D. (2009). A robust algorithm for parameter estimation in smooth transition autoregressive models. Economics Letters 103: 36-38.
9.Kılıç, R. (2011). Long memory and nonlinearity in conditional variances: A smooth transition FIGARCH model. Journal of Empirical Finance 18: 368-378.
10.Cai, N., Cai, Z., Fang, Y. et al. (2015). Forecasting major Asian exchange rates using a new semiparametric STAR model. Empirical Economics, 48(1): 407–426.