时间：2020年11月5日（周四）下午14:00

地点：36365线路检测中心210会议室

题目：Efficiency improvement, structural change, and energy intensity reduction: Evidence from Chinese agricultural sector（效率改善、结构变化和能源强度下降：来自中国农业部门的证据）

主讲人：吴枢博士

Abstract: China is now facing the challenge of modernizing its agricultural sector while reducing agricultural energy intensity to slow down the growth of agricultural energy consumption. This paper aims to investigate the determinants of changes in agricultural energy intensity (CAEI) in China, which first uses the Log-mean Divisia Index method to decompose CAEI into changes in efficiency component (CEC) and changes in structure component (CSC) based on national time-series data during 1981-2017 and then employs panel data models with fixed effects to exploit the determinants of CAEI, CEC, and CSC based on provincial data during 1991-2015. The results are as follows: (1) CEC dominates CAEI with a correlation coefficient of 0.9927, while the impact of CSC is limited; (2) an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between CEC and income. Capital and labor significantly improve CEC, while the impact of energy price is significantly negative; (3) a U-shaped relationship is observed between CSC and income. Capital and labor significantly decrease CSC; (4) a U-shaped relationship exists between CAEI and capital. Energy price and income significantly reduce CAEI, while the role of labor is opposite. Finally, it is suggested to improve farmers’ environmental awareness, deepen agricultural capital accumulation, and deregulate rural energy prices.

摘要：中国正面临着推进农业现代化和降低农业能源强度以减缓农业能源消费增长的挑战。本文旨在研究中国农业能源强度变化的决定因素，首先基于1981-2017年的时间序列数据并采用对数平均迪氏因素分解法将农业能源强度变化分解成效率变化和结构变化两个部分，随后基于1991-2015年的省级面板数据并采用固定效应面板数据模型研究农业能源强度变化、效率变化和结构变化的影响因素。结果表明：（1）效率变化主导了中国农业能源强度变化，二者之间的相关系数为0.9927，而结构变化的影响相对有限；（2）效率变化与收入呈倒u型关系，资本和劳动投入能显著提高效率变化，而能源价格能显著降低效率变化；（3）结构变化与收入呈u型关系，资本和劳动投入能显著降低结构变化；（4）农业能源强度变化与资本呈u型关系，能源价格和收入能显著降低农业能源强度变化，而劳动投入的作用则相反。最后，本文的政策启示包括提高农民的环境意识，深化农业资本积累以及放开农村能源价格。

主讲人简介：吴枢，男，36365线路检测中心讲师，主要研究方向为中国农村能源消费与政策、农业生产与要素投入以及气候变化与经济发展，曾在Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews等期刊发表文章。